China is experiencing a new wave of infections in the coronavirus epidemic.
According to the analysis published by the health data services and analysis company Airfinity, headquartered in London, the epidemic is estimated to affect a total of 112 million people.
It is observed that the new epidemic wave has a more limited spread compared to the epidemic in which more than 1 billion people were infected during the winter months.
While Arfinity predicts that the epidemic will reach its peak with 11 million cases per week at the beginning of June, this is one-fifth of the 65 million cases per week estimate put forward by Chinese respiratory specialist Cong Nanshan a while ago.
It was stated that the difference between the estimates may be due to the fact that the cases that do not show any signs of disease in Airfinity’s model are not included in the total.
On the other hand, the company predicts that there will be 629 thousand deaths in this infection wave. The company estimated that between 1.3 million and 2.1 million people died in the great epidemic wave in the winter months.
Waves of “reinfection”
As China abandons its so-called “zero-case” epidemic control and prevention measures and adopts a strategy to live with the virus, multiple waves of “re-infections” are expected, as in Japan and South Korea, which previously implemented and then lifted similar measures. .
Airfinity’s COVID-19 epidemologist Dr. Tishya Venkatraman stated that the great epidemic wave that China experienced six months ago provided wide-scale natural immunity, and more progress has been made in vaccination since those days, “Despite the effect of the XBB sub-variant, there is a smaller and less severe second wave in China. we are waiting.” said.
Pointing out that hospitals and morgues do not see as much density as in winter, Venkatraman said, “Although the ongoing wave is smaller, it can still cause large-scale loss of life due to the increase in the aging population in China. We saw this in the last wave in Japan. Despite the rate of vaccination and immunity in previous waves, there have been many casualties.” used the phrases.
Official figures do not reflect the epidemic picture.
There is no official data on the latest wave of epidemics in China. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stopped reporting weekly numbers of positive tests and visits to clinics after the World Health Organization (WHO) announced in early May that COVID-19 would not be considered a “global health emergency.”
Meanwhile, CDC, which continues to inform WHO regularly, reported that 5,621 cases were detected throughout the country in the week of May 21-28.
Since widespread tests are no longer carried out in the country, it is considered that the figures do not reflect the epidemic picture.
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, cases have increased rapidly with the abrupt lifting of the so-called “zero case” epidemic control measures, which required massive shutdowns, quarantines and travel restrictions, on December 7, 2022, and the country faces the largest mass spread ever seen. was left. It is estimated that more than 1 billion people, who make up about 80 percent of the population, were infected in the epidemic wave in the winter months.