Heat alert in the UK: Risk of overheating is double the normal

While the highest values ​​of this year were recorded in England with 32.2 degrees on June 10, temperature records were also broken in Scotland and Ireland.

According to the information received by the AA correspondent from the British Meteorological Agency (Met Office), the probability of June being hotter than the average is increasing, while the probability of a dry month in the rest of the month is the same compared to the periods in previous years.

Considering the predicted temperature values ​​for the summer period including July and August, it is predicted that the risk of getting hotter this summer with the effect of global warming is twice the average and the possibility of experiencing extreme heat waves and related effects during the summer is predicted to increase.

Met Office meteorologists see no strong signs that the UK’s record temperature of 40.3 last year will be exceeded this year, but say such high temperatures could become the norm.

On the other hand, it is calculated that local effects from thunderstorms are more likely to occur during the summer period.

Precipitation and temperature dynamics in regions are shifting

Despite forecasting that the nationwide precipitation in England will be the same as in previous years, the north of the country is expected to have a drier-than-usual summer and the south a wetter summer.

As the normal dynamics in temperature and weather events change due to global warming, the probability of summer thunderstorms is predicted to be higher than average for the south of England.

According to the measurements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US agency responsible for investigating the world’s weather and marine events, one of the hottest airwaves in the world’s seas occurred off the coasts of Ireland and England this month as average water temperatures rose 4-5 degrees.

NOAA has described this heatwave in UK and Irish waters as “Category 4”, which corresponds to “extreme” warming.

A study published earlier this month by researchers from the London School of Economics (LSE) revealed that local authorities, first responders, utilities and transport industry representatives are concerned that the UK is not prepared for the hurdles of extreme heat waves this summer.

During the extreme temperatures seen last summer, there were 2,803 deaths over the age of 65 and 3,271 more than all age groups.

According to the data of the British Office of National Statistics, the loss of life in the country during the heat period in 2016-2021 was 9.3 percent higher than the average.

Heat wave risk for every country

According to the estimates of the World Meteorological Organization, the probability of 2023-2027 to be recorded as the warmest years in the world is 98 percent.

This rate means that the global temperature increase will be between 1.1 and 1.8 degrees Celsius in this period compared to 1850-1900.

The probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees, which is defined by the United Nations (UN) as the last limit in global temperature increase in order to provide humane living conditions, is 66 percent.

Due to the accelerating global warming, extreme heat waves and related health problems and loss of life pose a risk to people living in all parts of the world.

While nearly 100 people lost their lives due to the heat wave in India in the last few days, this year’s heat wave in China caused 17 deaths and 8 deaths in Mexico.

According to the data of the World Health Organization, 166,000 people died in the world due to the extreme heat wave between 1998 and 2017, while more than 20 thousand people died last summer in Europe alone.

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