Moody’s released its “Global Macro Outlook” February 2023 report.
Global growth is expected to continue to slow in 2023, with the impact of tight monetary policy on economic activity and employment in most major economies, the report said.
G20 global economic growth is projected to decline from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 2 percent this year and rise to 2.4 percent in 2024.
In the report, it was stated that inflation in developed economies is expected to remain above the targets of central banks for most of 2023 and 2024, while inflation outlook differs in developing countries.
Pointing out that the central banks will keep the interest rates restrictive for longer than the markets expect, the report emphasized that despite the clear perceptions that the end of monetary policy tightening is approaching, it is not known how long and for how long the restrictive interest rates will continue.
In the report, it was stated that the 2023 growth forecasts for the USA, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were raised, while the growth expectations for Argentina, South Africa and South Korea decreased.
For the next year, growth forecasts for the economies of China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were revised upwards, while forecasts for France, Italy and South Africa were lowered.
In the report, it was reported that the 2023 and 2024 GDP growth projections for Turkey were revised from 2 percent and 3 percent to 2.3 percent and 4 percent, respectively, by taking into account the effects of reconstruction activities in the regions devastated by the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake.
This year’s growth forecast for the USA was raised from 0.4 percent to 0.9 percent, and for China from 4 percent to 5 percent.