Current trends predict the world’s population to reach 8.8 billion before the middle of the century and then decline rapidly, according to the study by the Club of Rome.
The peak may come sooner if governments take progressive steps to raise average incomes and education levels.
The new forecasts are good news for the global environment.
It is predicted that once the demographic bloat is overcome, the pressure on nature and climate and the associated social and political tensions will begin to lessen.
But the authors warn that falling birthrates alone will not solve the planet’s current 7.8 billion environmental problems, mainly caused by the overconsumption of a wealthy minority.
It can also create new problems, such as a dwindling population, a dwindling workforce, and more stress on health care associated with an aging society.
Ben Callegari, one of the report’s authors, said the findings are cause for optimism, but there is a problem.
“This provides us with proof that the population bomb will not explode, but we still face significant environmental challenges. We need to put a lot of effort into addressing the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population.”
Last year, the UN estimated that the world’s population would reach 9.7 billion by the middle of the century and would continue to increase for several decades thereafter.